Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
